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Labor participation and the economy
I've been interested for a while about the gulph between economic metrics such as low unemployment and low public confidence in the economy. Even before inflation became a central issue, Americans reported low confidence despite the unemployment rate returning to pre-pandemic levels, which were at a historic low. The Labor Force Participation Rate is a less sexy metric, but seeing that this number is much further from recovering to pre-pandemic levels, perhaps this can help explain low confidence among Americans in the economy. Do you have any thoughts as to why these two metrics seem to be tracking a different trend? How can this help us better understand what's going on in our nation's economy?
Pelosi/Taiwan
Isn’t it possible that the democrats are playing 4D chess with China? I certainly think that Pelosi is visiting Taiwan more as a vanity project, but wouldn’t it behoove the United States (in a defense perspective) to have the Speaker visit Taiwan with the President’s express disapproval? The PRC would be far more dismayed if Biden visited Taiwan, but Pelosi showing US support while the Biden signals to China that he disapproves almost acts like a shield so the US can still act as a superior nation afraid of no man? And even if it isn’t a 4D chess game, can’t it be a happy accident because tensions likely won’t ratchet up if PRC sees Biden against the visit?
Is This A Binary Moment?
During the latest chat with the always-delightful Frank DiStefano, Marshall stated that he thinks we're in a binary moment and so there's no evading those options and therefore alienating voters when you do. How much of the landscape of current and potential political issues does that cover? It seems like we hear about a particular range of issues, even assuming all are truly important, that have easy binary divisions because of the incentives in media and politics. That doesn't mean there aren't additional solutions which haven't bubbled up yet. What would you predict as being new issues emerging into politics--such as around technologies like VR, genetic engineering, AI, and cybernetics--that will mix things up or create new binaries in the coming years?
Chinese Housing Market Collapse
Can you talk with a guest that can explain the issues with the Chinese economy? ~30% of China's GDP is related to their housing market which is collapsing, there are protests in China related to banking issues and the zero covid policy is keeping their economy in lockdown. The effects on supply chains are already being felt, but if the Chinese economy goes into a recession or depression, what are the knock on effects in the US, or Europe, or Africa?