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What does the presence or absence of swing voters say about the progression of political realignment?
Hello Marshall and Saagar, I am not in politics professionally but my career in defense tech is highly influenced by policy objectives, leading me to watch the landscape closely. It appears to me that there are virtually no undecided voters anymore, as most everyone has had a solidified view of Trump for many years now. Furthermore, it appears that Biden won in 2020 not by appealing to swing voters, but instead activating low propensity voters to come out against Trump rather than for Biden. I'm not sure the Biden campaign will be able to pull off that maneuver again this fall given the disparity many of those exact low propensity voters have felt during the Biden presidency and the loss of youth support due to Israel/Gaza policies. This would imply that the realignment is stopped (or paused) because the parties are set in to their views due to there being so few voters left in the middle to fight over. I was hoping you could reflect on the framing here (victory via low propensity voters, minimal swing voters remaining, implications for this election, etc.) and use it as a opportunity to describe where in the process of realignment you think we are. You used to frequently say that a realignment would be a years or decade+ long process, and we are now nearly 9 years out from the escalator ride on June 16, 2015. I've been a subscriber since the beginning and a premium supporter for as long as I've been able. Greatly appreciate all the work you do. Best, Josh
Legacy of Ross Perot
Bobby Kennedy's presidential bid has me thinking about Ross Perot. Perot got almost 20% of the popular vote, and exactly zero electoral votes. Then what? It seems to me like the only changes that resulted were just new policies to make it harder for people to vote third party. There's a bit from Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy that goes: "I wonder what will happen if I press this button." "Don't!" "Oh!" "What happened?" "A sign lit up saying, 'please do not press this button again.'" That must be what it felt like to pull the lever for Perot. Do you think Perot made an actual impact? Do you think Bobby Kennedy's bid could end up differently?
Why do we still misunderstand the Middle East so much?
After decades of war, it seems like Americans, and Westerners more generally, do not understand the Middle East any better. This is especially prevalent now with the events in and around Israel. To me it looks like there is just a total misunderstanding of Islam/Islamic schisms, the Arab world, the history of the region, Judaism/Israel, and the power dynamics and reality on the ground of the region. I sense this on the online left and the online right especially. Is this just me or do you see this too? Why is it still the case after all these years? Jesse
Reflection on Current State of the Israel-Gaza War
Can you do a reflection on the current state of the Israel-Gaza War? We haven't heard Marshall discuss it almost since the war broke out, although Saagar covers it pretty frequently on BP. How do you think the war has proceeded? Is Israel committing a genocide? Is Israel trying to expand the war to include Lebanon and Iran by sending troops into Southern Lebanon and striking the Iranian embassy?